Just for fun, search using the keyword "Recession" on Google Trends and you'll see results above. FWIW, folks aren't searching for a recession as much today as they were in 2008.
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The 10 percent limit is initiated if the lead month futures contract is limit offered. Once this has occurred, the limit is in effect for 10 minutes. This means you cannot trade below the limit, but it doesallow you to trade at or above it. Once the 10 minutes has expired one of two things can happen. If the lead month futures contract is not limit offered after 10 minutes, trading will continue with the 20 percent limit in effect. If the lead month futures contract is limit offered after 10 minutes, trading will halt for two minutes. Once the two minutes has expired, trading will resume with the 20 percent limit in effect.See the CME Equity Index Price Limits FAQ (pdf) for more information.
Under NYSE Rule 80B, the 10 percent price limit is not in effect after 2:30 p.m. ET (1:30 p.m. Chicago time). Therefore, after 1:30 p.m. Chicago time, the 10 percent limit is removed and the 20 percent limit would be in effect. For example, if E-mini S&P 500 futures were down 5 percent at 1:30 p.m. ET, the 10 percent limit
According to conventional wisdom, annualized volatility of stock returns is lower over long horizons than over short horizons, due to mean reversion induced by return predictability. In contrast, we find that stocks are substantially more volatile over long horizons from an investor's perspective. This perspective recognizes that parameters are uncertain, even with two centuries of data, and that observable predictors imperfectly deliver the conditional expected return. Mean reversion contributes strongly to reducing long-horizon variance, but it is more than offset by various uncertainties faced by the investor, especially uncertainty about the expected return. The same uncertainties reduce desired stock allocations of long-horizon investors contemplating target-date funds.View Full Article (pdf).
The global economy is in the midst of its second growth scare in less than two years. Get used to it. In a post-crisis world, these are the footprints of a failed recovery.Read More
The reason is simple. The typical business cycle has a natural cushioning mechanism that wards off unexpected blows. The deeper the downturn, the more powerful the snapback, and the greater the cumulative forces of self-sustaining revival. Vigorous V-shaped rebounds have a built-in resilience that allows them to shrug off shocks relatively easily.
But a post-crisis recovery is a very different animal...